The Power of Climate Change and Agriculture: How IMD Uses Monsoon Forecasting for Climate Resilience

Introduction

Climate change is altering the Earth’s ecosystems, leading to more frequent and severe weather events. Agriculture has been particularly vulnerable, with growing populations and changing seasons requiring enhanced weather resilience. While efforts have been made to adapt, there remains a need for improved monitoring and prediction tools that can help agricultural regions, citizens, and local users better handle extreme weather and climate-related impacts.

IMD’s Strategy: Monsoon Forecasting with MME

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has introduced significant improvements in its monsoon forecasting system. Starting from 2007 with the Statistical Ensemble Forecasting System (SEFS) and implementing Multi-Model Ensembles (MME) in 2021, IMD’s forecasts have shown remarkable success.

The MME Approach: IMD’s MME system combines coupled global climate models (CGCMs) from various centers, including IMD’s MMCFS model. This method updates its forecasts every month and seasonally, addressing the needs of different users by providing spatial distribution data for both regional averages and specific rainfall predictions.

Recent Improvements:

• Over 18 years (2007–2024), forecast errors in seasonal rainfall averaged down by about 21%, indicating significant skill improvement.
• Specific examples include correctly forecasting twin-deficient monsoon years (2014–2015) and normalizing extreme rainfall events like those in 2023 and 2024.

The Impact on Agricultural Regions

Agriculture depends heavily on reliable weather data, so IMD’s forecasts play a crucial role. By enhancing observational networks and improving the ability to detect small-scale weather events (e.g., cloudbursts, thunderstorms), these forecasts aid in disaster preparedness and response for agricultural areas.

Mission Mausam Initiative: IMD and other organizations are working together on initiatives like Mission Mausam, which focuses on raising awareness about climate change. They also use local languages to ensure broader engagement among communities affected by weather events.

Local Language Use

Dr. Jitendra Singh emphasized the importance of using local language for communication. The IMD and space agencies collaborate in the Indian languages, which aids in better understanding and dissemination of climate science, especially in regions facing increased vulnerability due to climate change.

Conclusion

IMD’s monsoon forecasting system is a vital tool in addressing climate change challenges, particularly for agricultural regions. By improving observational data and enhancing prediction capabilities, this approach contributes to climate resilience, helping communities adapt to extreme weather events while maintaining food security. The continued success of MME systems like IMD’s will be key in building a sustainable future under changing climate conditions.